A long-time acquaintance of mine, Rob, recently pointed out an interesting development—Turkey is eyeing membership in BRICS. Rob’s remark got me thinking about a blog article I wrote more than a decade ago, discussing Turkey's aspirations to join the Eurasian Economic Union. Even back then, I had my doubts about how serious Turkey was about joining that bloc. Turkey, with its strategic geopolitical position, has always kept its cards close, often weighing its options between Western alliances and Eastern partnerships. The question now is, could it be different with BRICS?
Turkey’s Geopolitical Balancing Act
For over a decade, Turkey has flirted with the idea of joining various economic and political organizations, from the EU to the Eurasian Economic Union. In my older blog post, I expressed skepticism about Turkey’s actual intentions regarding the Eurasian Union. I argued that Turkey’s economic interests and its ties with the West made such a move unlikely, and in hindsight, that analysis turned out to be accurate.
However, BRICS is a different beast. Unlike the EU or the Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS isn't a tightly bound organization with strict rules or borders. It’s more of an economic grouping—a term initially coined to capture the rising influence of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Over time, BRICS has evolved into a loosely organized coalition of emerging economies that share common goals, like reducing dependency on Western-dominated financial institutions.
Why BRICS Could Be a Fit for Turkey
In contrast to more structured alliances, BRICS is relatively flexible. Its appeal lies in promoting a multipolar world order, where emerging markets can gain a stronger voice on the global stage. Given Turkey’s current foreign policy direction, especially under President Erdoğan, joining BRICS could make sense.
Turkey’s economy has faced turbulence in recent years, and aligning itself with other emerging markets might present new opportunities. Additionally, with tensions between Turkey and Western powers, particularly the U.S. and the EU, BRICS could serve as a way for Turkey to signal its readiness to pivot eastward, without making a full departure from its Western ties.
Another factor in favor of Turkey’s potential membership in BRICS is the grouping’s non-committal nature. Joining BRICS doesn't require Turkey to fully abandon its relationships with NATO or the West. Instead, it could provide a platform for Turkey to diversify its alliances, strengthening ties with rising powers like China and India, while also maintaining its critical role in Western institutions.
A Different Context
Looking back, Turkey’s pursuit of Eurasian Economic Union membership seemed unlikely, mainly because of its deep-rooted ties with NATO and the EU. BRICS, however, offers Turkey a different platform—one where the barriers to entry are lower, and the geopolitical implications are less clear-cut. In other words, joining BRICS wouldn’t represent a full pivot away from the West but rather an expansion of Turkey’s global influence.
The question remains, though—how serious is Turkey about joining BRICS? While nothing is set in stone, the country's interest in BRICS aligns with its broader strategy of pursuing a more independent, multi-aligned foreign policy.
My Take on the Future
If Turkey were to join BRICS, it would signal a growing trend toward more fluid alliances in a rapidly changing world. Unlike my skepticism from over a decade ago regarding Turkey's Eurasian ambitions, I believe Turkey could very well take this opportunity seriously. After all, BRICS, as an informal organization, doesn’t require the same level of commitment that other alliances do.
In conclusion, Turkey’s potential membership in BRICS might just be a natural evolution of its broader geopolitical strategy. It’s an alliance that doesn’t force Turkey to choose between East and West but allows it to benefit from both. Given BRICS’s fluidity and Turkey’s current trajectory, this time it feels different—perhaps the timing and context have finally aligned.
Only time will tell if Turkey fully commits, but in this case, I wouldn’t be surprised if the country does, indeed, join BRICS.