Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

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I was first introduced to the works of Nassim Nicholas Taleb from a fellow option trader when in a conversation I mentioned the term "Black Swan", my friend told me that Mr. Nassim Taleb is the author of this term and that he actually is quite active on Twitter.

I followed Nassim Taleb on Twitter, read a bit Wikipedia about him and basically forgot about him, when a couple of weeks later I was reading another trader's blog in which he mentions that has re-read all the books of Nassim Taleb. Now I decided - I should act, quickly googled which book I should read first - and Fooled by Randomness was pretty much recommended. I bought from Amazon the Kindle version and started to read. 

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy; or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets we hear an entrepreneur has a vision or a trader is talented, but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb  is a Lebanese-American (of Antiochian Greek descent) essayist, scholar, statistician, and former option trader and risk analyst, whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. His 2007 book The Black Swan has been described by The Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.

Taleb is the author of the Incerto, a five volume philosophical essay on uncertainty published between 2001 and 2018 (of which the most known books are The Black Swan and Antifragile). He has been a professor at several universities, serving as a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at the New York University Tandon School of Engineering since September 2008.He has been co-editor-in-chief of the academic journal Risk and Decision Analysis since September 2014. He has also been a practitioner of mathematical finance, a hedge fund manager, and a derivatives trader, and is currently listed as a scientific adviser at Universa Investments.

He criticized the risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently profiting from the late-2000s financial crisis. He advocates what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events. He proposes antifragility in systems, that is, an ability to benefit and grow from a certain class of random events, errors, and volatility as well as "convex tinkering" as a method of scientific discovery, by which he means that decentralized experimentation outperforms directed research

 

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