Projected Future Forecast For GDP In Former Soviet Union Block Countries (2014-2019)

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Eastern Partnership Eurasian Union GDP Russia

In past I have created many GDP reviews regarding former Soviet Union republics, but have never made future GDP forecast report yet. In this article that's exactly what I'm doing.

Now, Soviet Union doesn't exist for more than 25 years already. Those former 15 republics have gone more or less separate way since dissolution of USSR.  

There has happened some geopolitical changes over last 25 years, starting of dissolution of USSR, formation of CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), three of former soviet republics have joined both European Union and NATO. And for a last of couple of years there has been attempts of trying to build up an Eurasian Union.

Map of Former Soviet Union

Map of Former Soviet Union (Source: Iron Curtain and Ex-U.S.S.R. Countries) 

I will speak about those economical organizations seperatly latter in this post, but for now, let's take a look of Projected Future Forecast by International Monetary Fund for those former Soviet Union Countries

Projected Future Forecast For GDP (Nominal) In Former Soviet Union Block Countries (2014-2019) 

Country 2014 bln $ 2015 bln $ 2016 bln $ 2017 bln $ 2018 bln $ 2019 bln $ % 5 years
Armenia 11,111 11,465 11,780 12,387 13,304 14,318 28.86%
Azerbaijan 77,913 85,439 91,629 98,771 106,601 113,995 46.31%
Belarus 77,171 81,627 87,436 92,642 97,497 103,151 33.66%
Estonia 26,363 27,410 29,158 31,123 33,204 35,495 34.63%
Georgia 16,125 17,458 18,880 20,403 22,054 23,836 47.82%
Kazakhstan 225,619 248,681 276,991 310,027 345,552 386,725 71.40%
Kyrgyzstan 7,647 8,243 9,009 9,720 10,520 11,372 48.71%
Latvia 32,815 34,118 36,138 38,703 41,362 44,222 34.76%
Lithuania 48,722 51,002 54,462 58,481 62,750 67,375 38.28%
Moldova 7,744 8,114 8,659 9,237 9,839 10,517 35.80%
Russia 2,057,301 2,098,848 2,235,594 2,348,431 2,462,671 2,594,739 26.12%
Tajikistan 9,156 9,690 10,592 11,595 12,644 13,848 51.24%
Turkmenistan 47,542 54,237 62,559 71,105 80,020 90,155 89.63%
Ukraine 134,885 136,067 148,457 163,675 179,807 196,271 45.50%
Uzbekistan 63,079 67,888 74,575 81,567 89,219 97,590 54.71%
Total 2,843,193 2,940,287 3,155,919 3,357,867 3,567,044 3,803,609 33.77%

According to IMF, there will be 4 countries in next 5 years to increase their GDP by more than 50% - Turkmenistan (89.63%), Kazakhstan (71.40%) , Uzbekistan (54.71%) and Tajikistan (51.24%)

  • While it may look as impressive growth of 51.24% for Tajikistan, it's overall GDP still will be very modest - up from $9,156 billion in 2014 to $13,84 billions in 2019. It's a growth of "just" $4.69 billions in 5 year term. Pretty modest result for a country with population  8.2 million.
  • More slower, but still pretty decent results will show Russia (26.12%), Armenia (28.86%) and Belarus (33.65%). Speaking of Russia  - for me those results seems surprisingly good, taking into account sanctions over Russia made both by EU and USA  I was thinking the Russian economy for next 5 years will be with negative sign, but according to projected future of Russia's GDP, it wont decrease at all. If that's right I will be indeed surprised.

OK, at lets divide those 15 former Soviet countries in smaller blocks:

  • Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania)
  • South Caucasus (Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia)
  • Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan)
  • Eurasian Union block countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan).

What doesn't fit in any group those are Ukraine and Moldova. So I will group them into Eastern Partnership countries together with Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus)

Baltic States Projected Future GDP (Nominal) (2014-2019)

Country 2014 $bln 2015 $bln 2016 $bln 2017 $bln 2018 $bln 2019 $bln % 5 years
Estonia 26,363 27,410 29,158 31,123 33,204 35,495 34.63%
Latvia 32,815 34,118 36,138 38,703 41,362 44,222 34.76%
Lithuania 48,722 51,002 54,462 58,481 62,750 67,375 38.28%
Total 107,900 112,530 119,758 128,307 137,316 147,092 36.32%

Baltic states have been members to European Union and NATO since 2004. Since 2014 all countries have euro as national currency. In next 5 years Lithuania is projected to have biggest GDP increase of 38.28%, followed by Latvia (34.76%) and Estonia (34.63%)

  • The total combined GDP of Baltic states will increase from $107,900 billions to $147,092 billions. 
  • What I can see from those data - Baltic's are united, they will experience modest but stable growth in next 5 years.

South Caucasus Projected Future GDP (Nominal) (2014-2019)

Country 2014 $bln 2015 $bln 2016 $bln 2017 $bln 2018 $bln 2019 $bln % 5 years  
Armenia 11,111 11,465 11,780 12,387 13,304 14,318 28.86%  
Azerbaijan 77,913 85,439 91,629 98,771 106,601 113,995 46.31%  
Georgia 16,125 17,458 18,880 20,403 22,054 23,836 47.82%  
Total 105,149 114,362 122,289 131,561 141,959 152,149 44.69%  

Situation in South Caucasus countries is pretty interesting - Armenia has joined Eurasian Union, Georgia is seeking it's way into European Union while Azerbaijan is trying to be neutral of choosing a larger geopolitical power. There are frozen conflict over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

My personal observation is simple - if Baltic states we can call more or less united, then situation is quite opposite here in Caucasus.

  • In next five years region of South Caucasus is awaited to grow GDP by 44.69%

Central Asia Projected Future GDP (Nominal) (2014-2019)

Country 2014 $bln 2015 $bln 2016 $bln 2017 $bln 2018 $bln 2019 $bln % 5 years
Kazakhstan 225,619 248,681 276,991 310,027 345,552 386,725 71.40%
Kyrgyzstan 7,647 8,243 9,009 9,720 10,520 11,372 48.71%
Tajikistan 9,156 9,690 10,592 11,595 12,644 13,848 51.24%
Turkmenistan 47,542 54,237 62,559 71,105 80,020 90,155 89.63%
Uzbekistan 63,079 67,888 74,575 81,567 89,219 97,590 54.71%
Total 353,043 388,739 433,726 484,014 537,955 599,690 69.86%
  • Now, according to IMF Estimates region of Central Asia will experience most faster growth in former Soviet Union block making average 69.86% growth in next five years.
  • The total output of combined GDP of Central Asia will increase from $0.35 trillions in 2014 to almost $0.6 trillions in 2019. 

Eurasian Union Projected Future GDP (Nominal) (2014-2019)

Country 2014 $bln 2015 $bln 2016 $bln 2017 $bln 2018 $bln 2019 $bln % 5 years
Russia 2,057,301 2,098,848 2,235,594 2,348,431 2,462,671 2,594,739 26.12%
Armenia 11,111 11,465 11,780 12,387 13,304 14,318 28.86%
Belarus 77,171 81,627 87,436 92,642 97,497 103,151 33.66%
Kyrgyzstan 7,647 8,243 9,009 9,720 10,520 11,372 48.71%
Kazakhstan 225,619 248,681 276,991 310,027 345,552 386,725 71.40%
Total 2,378,849 2,448,864 2,620,810 2,773,207 2,929,544 3,110,305 30.74%

And here comes a table with Eurasian Union, as you can see - main driving force behind it is Russia.

  • If Russia is willing to make it work (Eurasian Union) I believe they will try to get in other Central Asia's countries, like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
  • I believe there will be no problems to get Tajikistan on board (taking into account it's small economy) but I believe Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are not so eager to join a club (They have oil)

Eastern Partnership country Projected Future GDP (Nominal) (2014-2019)

Country 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % 5 years
Armenia 11,111 11,465 11,780 12,387 13,304 14,318 28.86%
Belarus 77,171 81,627 87,436 92,642 97,497 103,151 33.66%
Moldova 7,744 8,114 8,659 9,237 9,839 10,517 35.80%
Ukraine 134,885 136,067 148,457 163,675 179,807 196,271 45.50%
Azerbaijan 77,913 85,439 91,629 98,771 106,601 113,995 46.31%
Georgia 16,125 17,458 18,880 20,403 22,054 23,836 47.82%
Total 324,949 340,170 366,841 397,115 429,102 462,088 42.20%

Now this is a tricky part, though those countries are members of Eastern Partnership -  still Belarus is closest ally to Russia, Armenia has joined Eurasian Union. In Ukraine is ongoing military conflict.

I would call those countries of Eastern Partnership  a trouble kids for EU.

The Bottom Line

Seems next five years could bring a lot of surprises, prosperity will come together with fight for power. I believe European Union will find more struggle to take away from Russia's sphere of influence those countries in Eastern Partnerships as Russia has never kept in secret -  it's vital to keep it's borders safe from NATO. 

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